The Pollfinity Tracker

Three-Factor Weighting System

Each poll receives a combined weight equal to the product of three factors: pollster quality tier (1.0 for top-rated firms like YouGov, Ipsos, and Quinnipiac; down to 0.3 for unrated sources), recency (1.0 for polls from the last 3 days, declining to 0.2 for polls older than 14 days), and sample size (√(n/1000), so a 1,000-person poll scores 1.0 and a 4,000-person poll scores ~2.0).

The final weighted average is the sum of (value × weight) divided by the sum of all weights — a standard weighted mean. Only polls from the last 30 days are included in current averages; historical trend lines use 90-day windows in 3-day buckets.

Full methodology documentation →  ·  Raw data available on request: polls@pollfinity.com