FORECAST MODEL

2026 Senate & Governor Ratings

Data-driven projections based on the Pollfinity generic ballot, state-level trackers, and candidate fundamentals.

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Pollfinity Research Forecast Desk
Modeled Generic Ballot (Live Average)
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2026 Senate Ratings
50
Democrats
45
Republicans
5
Tossups

Key Tossup Races

  • Texas D +1.2
  • Nebraska TIED
  • Iowa R +0.8
  • Ohio D +1.5
  • South Carolina R +1.1
2026 Governor Ratings
25
Democrats
21
Republicans
4
Tossups

Key Tossup Races

  • New York D +2.1
  • Pennsylvania D +0.5
  • Michigan R +0.4
  • Georgia D +1.1

Ratings are built from the Pollfinity generic ballot average, state-level polling, and race fundamentals, and are updated as new polling is published. See Methodology for how underlying survey data is collected.