APTOS, CA — October 22, 2026. Pollfinity Research LLC today released results of a survey of 278 registered Texas voters on the 2026 races for U.S. Senate, Governor and Lieutenant Governor, conducted October 15–18, 2026. In the Senate race, Democrat James Talarico draws 48% to Republican Ken Paxton's 43%, with 2% backing Libertarian Ted Brown and 5% undecided. In the race for Governor, Democrat Gina Hinojosa is at 46% and Governor Greg Abbott at 45%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 2% and 5% undecided. For Lieutenant Governor, Dan Patrick leads Vikki Goodwin 46% to 42%, with Libertarian Anthony Cristo at 2%, Green Kevin McCormick at 1% and 6% undecided. All three gaps are inside the survey's full-sample margin of error of ±6.5 points.
Abbott's job approval is under water: 45% approve and 52% disapprove, with 41% disapproving strongly. His favorability is 44% favorable, 52% unfavorable. Paxton is the least liked name on the ballot at 40% favorable, 56% unfavorable (net −16); Talarico is 50% favorable, 47% unfavorable. Hinojosa is 47% favorable, 39% unfavorable, with 14% offering no opinion. 49% say Texas is on the wrong track; 39% say it is headed in the right direction.
Donald Trump's favorability among Texas voters is 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable.
On the hemp-derived THC products that the Legislature voted to ban in 2025 and Abbott vetoed, Texans side with the Governor: 42% would keep the products legal for adults 21 and older as they are now, 23% would legalize them with fewer restrictions, 19% would ban them and 16% are not sure.
Key Findings
Poll Graphics
Top Issues
- Cost of living / inflation22%
- Immigration and border security18%
- Civil liberties and personal freedom9%
- Something else9%
- Education9%
- Government spending and fiscal responsibility9%
- Economy and jobs in general8%
- Property taxes and other taxes7%
- Crime and public safety6%
- Healthcare3%
Partisan Dynamics
The races are defined by near-total partisan sorting. Among voters the file identifies as Democrats, Talarico leads 79%–14%. Among Republicans, Paxton leads 72%–19%. Texas has no party registration, so these are the voter file's modeled party, not enrollment. Recalled 2024 presidential vote tells the same story: Harris voters go 100% for Talarico and 98% for Hinojosa; Trump voters go 83% for Paxton and 81% for Abbott.
Women favor Talarico 57%–38% and Hinojosa 54%–39%; men favor Paxton 50%–37% and Abbott 52%–37%. Voters under 30 (n=29) favor Talarico 68%–29%.
Regional Breakdown (U.S. Senate)
| Region | Sample n | Talarico–Paxton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 65 | Talarico 58%–33% | Talarico +25 |
| Dallas–Fort Worth | 80 | Talarico 49%–45% | Talarico +4 |
| Austin | 27 | Talarico 58%–36% | Talarico +22 |
| San Antonio | 22 | Talarico 45%–43% | Talarico +2 |
| Border | 13 | Paxton 50%–40% | Paxton +10 |
| Rest of Texas | 71 | Paxton 51%–37% | Paxton +14 |
Regions are assigned from the county of registration on the voter file. Houston: Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, Galveston. Dallas–Fort Worth: Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Ellis, Kaufman, Johnson, Parker. Austin: Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop. San Antonio: Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe. Border: Hidalgo, Cameron, El Paso, Webb, Starr, Maverick, Val Verde, Zapata, Willacy. Rest of Texas: all other counties. Austin, San Antonio and Border subsamples are small and should be read as directional.
Hemp THC, Ballot Access and Third-Party Sentiment
The THC question is one of the few where the parties overlap: "keep them legal as now" is the plurality answer among Democrats (42%) and Republicans (40%) alike. Republicans are more likely to back a ban (25%) and Democrats to want fewer restrictions (34%).
Asked whether "Texas needs more political choices beyond the two major parties," 46% of voters agree and 41% disagree; agreement is 60% among Democrats and 29% among Republicans.
The Libertarian candidates remain largely unknown: 67% of voters have never heard of Pat Dixon and 66% have never heard of Ted Brown. 5% of Texas voters say they already describe their views as libertarian and 13% say they might.
On political violence, 20% agree that "Americans may have to resort to violence in order to get the country back on track" and 71% disagree (60% strongly). Agreement is 16% among Democrats and 23% among Republicans.
Survey Methodology
- Sample frame
- A statewide voter file of active registered Texas voters with a cell phone on record, with no turnout or response-likelihood filter applied. The 40,000-record sample was a random draw within four age bands (9,600 ages 18-29; 10,400 ages 30-44; 11,200 ages 45-64; 8,800 ages 65 and over) and within two surname groups (15,000 Spanish-surname, 25,000 all other), deliberately oversampling younger and Hispanic voters, who respond to text surveys at lower rates.
- Voter-file matching
- Respondents were matched to their voter-file record; registered-voter status and all demographic classifications are based on that record, and 5% nevertheless self-reported that they were not registered. Thirteen percent of respondents have no 2022 or 2024 general-election vote on their voter-file record and are retained.
- Weighting
- Because 2026 is a midterm, the demographic weighting targets are the age, gender, ethnic group and region profile of Texas's 2022 general-election voters on the voter file (the most recent midterm electorate), rather than of all registered voters; recalled vote was weighted to the certified 2024 presidential and 2022 gubernatorial results. Texas has no party registration; modeled party is reported as a diagnostic only and was not a weighting target.
- Margin of error
- ±6.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, adjusted for weighting (effective sample size 230, design effect 1.21). The margin of error reflects sampling error only; it is larger for subgroups, for questions later in the survey that have smaller bases, and for the difference between two candidates.
- Funding
- This survey was not commissioned by any candidate, political party, or outside organization.
- Ownership
- Pollfinity Research LLC is owned and self-funded by Lars Mapstead, a 2024 Libertarian presidential candidate who also funds ballot-access advocacy organizations; the ballot-access question was asked after all ballot tests and is reported by modeled party in the crosstabs.
About Pollfinity Research
Pollfinity Research LLC is an independent, non-partisan polling organization based in California. We do not accept funding from campaigns, political parties, or advocacy groups.
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