APTOS, CA — October 13, 2026. Pollfinity Research LLC today released results of a survey of 499 registered New York voters on the 2026 race for governor, conducted October 8–12, 2026. Governor Kathy Hochul leads Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 47% to 44% in the full-field ballot test, with 3% backing other candidates and 6% undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they lean, the race is 48% to 44%. In a direct head-to-head matchup, Hochul leads 48% to 47%, inside the survey's ±4.8-point margin of error.
Pollfinity's June survey of New York voters found Hochul ahead 50% to 40% in the head-to-head. That survey was unweighted; the October survey is weighted to the state's 2022 electorate and to certified 2024 and 2022 results, so the two are not strictly comparable. Even so, the direction is consistent with the race narrowing through the summer and fall.
Hochul's job approval is under water: 43% approve and 53% disapprove, with 44% disapproving strongly. Her favorability is 44% favorable, 51% unfavorable (net −7). Blakeman is at 44% favorable, 42% unfavorable, with 14% offering no opinion. 52% say New York is on the wrong track; 39% say it is headed in the right direction.
Donald Trump's favorability among New York voters is 40% favorable, 57% unfavorable, in line with other recent New York surveys.
Key Findings
Poll Graphics
Top Issues
- Cost of living / inflation25%
- Civil liberties and personal freedom12%
- Government spending and fiscal responsibility10%
- Crime and public safety10%
- Taxes8%
- Economy and jobs in general7%
- Immigration6%
- Healthcare6%
- Housing affordability4%
- Education3%
Partisan Dynamics
The race is defined by near-total partisan sorting. Among enrolled Democrats, Hochul leads 77%–18%. Among enrolled Republicans, Blakeman leads 84%–7%. Voters with no party enrollment break 58% Blakeman, 28% Hochul. Recalled 2024 presidential vote tells the same story: Harris voters go 90% for Hochul and Trump voters go 96% for Blakeman.
Women favor Hochul 56%–36%; men favor Blakeman 54%–38%.
Regional Breakdown (Full-Field Ballot Test)
| Region | Sample n | Hochul–Blakeman | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City | 177 | Hochul 57%–33% | Hochul +24 |
| Long Island | 80 | Blakeman 57%–42% | Blakeman +15 |
| Hudson Valley | 61 | Blakeman 53%–36% | Blakeman +17 |
| Upstate | 181 | Hochul 47%–45% | Hochul +2 |
Regions are assigned from the county of registration on the voter file. Hudson Valley: Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, Orange, Dutchess, Ulster, Sullivan. Upstate: all other counties outside New York City and Long Island.
Ballot Access and Third-Party Sentiment
Asked whether "New York needs more political choices beyond the two major parties," 49% of voters agree and 36% disagree; agreement is highest among voters with no party enrollment (61% agree). Told that an independent or third-party statewide candidate must collect 45,000 valid signatures while nominees of parties with automatic ballot status collect none, 42% say the requirement should be kept as it is, 19% say it should be lowered, 12% say raised, and 26% are not sure. The parties are closer together on this question than on any other in the survey: "kept as it is" draws a plurality among Democrats (47%), Republicans (39%) and no-party voters (36%).
5% of New York voters say they already describe their views as libertarian and 15% say they might.
On political violence, 17% agree that "Americans may have to resort to violence in order to get the country back on track" and 71% disagree (60% strongly). Agreement is essentially the same among Democrats (17%) and Republicans (17%).
For press inquiries or data requests, contact polls@pollfinity.com
Survey Methodology
- Conducted by
- Pollfinity Research LLC
- Field dates
- October 8–12, 2026
- Population
- Registered voters, New York State
- Sample size
- 499 respondents answered the governor ballot question and are included; 536 started the survey
- Method
- Text-message invitation to a web questionnaire (SMS-to-web)
- Sample frame
- A statewide voter file of registered voters with a cell phone. Two samples were texted: a fresh random sample of 40,000 registered voters (324 interviews) and the 8,035-voter sample from Pollfinity's June 2026 survey, re-contacted October 9 (175 interviews).
- Voter-file matching
- Respondents were matched to their voter-file record; registered-voter status and all demographic classifications are based on that record, and 2% nevertheless self-reported that they were not registered.
- Weighting
- Because 2026 is a midterm, the demographic weighting targets are the age, gender, race/ethnicity group and region profile of New York's 2022 general-election voters on the voter file (the most recent midterm electorate), rather than of all registered voters; recalled vote was weighted to the certified 2024 presidential and 2022 gubernatorial results.
- Margin of error
- ±4.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, adjusted for weighting (effective sample size 426, design effect 1.17). The margin of error reflects sampling error only; subgroup margins are larger.
- Funding
- This survey was not commissioned by any candidate, political party, or outside organization.
- Ownership
- Pollfinity Research LLC is owned and self-funded by Lars Mapstead, a 2024 Libertarian presidential candidate who also funds ballot-access advocacy organizations; the ballot-access question was asked after all ballot tests and is reported by party enrollment in the crosstabs.
Press & Data Inquiries
For crosstabs, full questionnaire, or press inquiries, contact:
polls@pollfinity.com
About Pollfinity Research
Pollfinity Research LLC is an independent, non-partisan polling organization based in California. We do not accept funding from campaigns, political parties, or advocacy groups.
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"Pollfinity Research LLC. New York Governor Survey, October 2026. n=499 registered voters. Field dates: October 8–12, 2026. Margin of error: ±4.8 pp (95% CI, weighted). Released October 13, 2026. pollfinity.com/polls/ny-governor-2026-oct"